The Collapse of the Conservatives?

The latest MRP results, the most reliable polling method, all suggest the Conservatives face either a catastrophic landslide loss on the scale of the 1997 General Election, or something far, far worse - a complete wipeout, receiving less than 100 seats in the House of Commons. Despite being in power for 14 years, the Conservatives have only won two elections outright since 1997. In 27 years, the Conservatives have won only two elections outright. We won't understate the scale of the disaster the Tories face. Even if the best-case scenario occurs, the Conservatives will likely be locked out of power for a generation. The Liberals perished a century ago as an electoral force, a similar fate awaits the Tories in the worst-case scenario. Depending on who you view the natural successor of the Liberals to be, they've either remained a consistent member in Parliament, only achieving government once in coalition with the Conservatives between 2010-15, or a regional party whose main base of operations is in Liverpool.

The Conservatives have overseen complete and utter chaos for the last 14 years. It began with implementing austerity, which undermined the long-run potential of the economy. To this day, we live with the effects of this disastrous policy. We also engaged in quantitative easing, which facilitated an asset boom, giving the illusion of economic prosperity while also assisting in making housing unaffordable.

Afterwards, the Conservatives engulfed itself in infighting about Europe. We've had only three Conservative Prime Ministers in one term and Parliament illegally prorogued. We left the European Union and the Single Market, arguably the UK's most significant contribution to the European project and the World since WW2. The promise was reclaiming Britain's self-determination and control over its borders. Four years after Brexit, we're no closer to reclaiming our borders and we're no closer to taking control of our destiny. The problem wasn't the European Union, but our hapless leaders focussed on spin and winning elections, not effective governance.

We then had the COVID-19 pandemic. The Conservatives responded in a mixed fashion. They implemented the furlough scheme, which protected workers from the worst effects of the economic impact of the pandemic. However, the unwillingness to ruthlessly stopping local outbreaks of the disease resulted in long national lockdowns, which have undermined the social and economic fabric of the country. This was also happening at the exact same time as the UK leaving the Single Market. The UK has not recovered from three calamitous policies that have undermined the economic potential of the country.

Throughout this entire time, more and more retirees have been claiming the state pension. Maximising the immediate economic potential of the country was necessary for sustaining a high pension bill with a reduced work force, instead they have done the exact opposite. We have disinvested in productive education, reskilling the workforce so that Britain can be more productive. Instead, we've relied on the ignorant notion that Britons need only work harder and longer for increasing productivity. In fact, workers are less productive working harder and longer than 39-hour working per week. We've not invested in infrastructure whether in building homes, high-speed rail networks, or new technologies. Britain is now poorer and in a complete state of disrepair. Britain is indeed Blighty.

The 14 years of Conservative rule has been nothing short of disastrous. Everything it has touched it has botched. The only aspect of its governance it has got right is its ability to bribe voters and use its propaganda arm, the mainstream media, to gaslight the country on how well the country is doing. Rising House prices has kept homeowners and pensioners happy, that is until Liz Truss came into the equation. It's also put huge strain on workers raising house prices. Her 49 days of incompetent and delusional premiership showcases what 14 years of Tory rule has encapsulated.

The British public know most of this. Its patience with the Conservatives has evaporated rightly. The only remarkable aspect in all of this is that it's taken so long. It shows the weakness of the left that it has taken so long for Labour to raise its game, and that's because they've become the Conservatives, as Green deputy co-leader Carla Denyer put it.

So, what will happen to the Conservatives this election? They're teetering on the fault line between two vastly different, but catastrophic, outcomes for its future: becoming temporarily irrelevant or permanently irrelevant. The huge swing from the Tories to Labour is the least of their problems. They also face losing significant support to Reform for those on the hard right of the Conservatives who see the betrayal of the Brexit dream and the failure of taking control of Britain's borders. The Liberal Democrats are in prime position for gaining support from centre-right Conservatives who needn't fear Labour, now don't see the Tories as an effective party of governance and are angry about Britain leaving the EU. Labour is pushing hard for centre-right votes in typically core Conservative seats. They face a sustained assault from both the right and the centre with their voting base hollowing out. They face the perfect storm.

The only saving grace the Conservatives have is whether the electorate insufficiently trusts Labour, to the point that they will not allow a scenario in which there is no effective opposition party. If the Conservatives go below 100 seats, there will be no effective opposition party. Electoral Calculus has predicted that the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will only have 14 seats separating them.

The Conservatives eventual calamity highlights that the natural party of government must govern well. What use does it serve when it doesn't? The left must learn to set the agenda in British politics, which requires a party of the left being the natural party of government. Rather than protesting, the left must learn how to effectively govern.

The left has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity at making the Conservatives a permanently irrelevant force in British politics. Furthermore, Reform's inability to win seats means the political right faces electoral disaster. There has never been a better opportunity for the left to shape the national agenda since 1945 and 1997. It failed in 1997, and it risks doing the same in 2024.

Translating the voice of the left into effective governance is integral for the public trusting it with the nation. Persuading Labour that it can govern effectively from the left, allowing the public to fulfil their aspirations through leftist policies, is integral for moving the Overton Window over to the left. The constant infighting between the Labour right and left isn't conducive to that aim. This infighting is not an institutional flaw of Labour, but within the left as whole.

Before applying the principle of mutuality to society and the economy, the left must learn to apply to itself first. Otherwise, the best opportunity for the left in generations will go amiss.